Aam Aadmi Party – Cicero Delhi Opinion Poll Wave – V

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Aam Aadmi Party Commissioned Cicero Associates(www.ciceroassociates.in) a New Delhi based consultancy firm specializing in public opinion polling and survey research, to carry out the fifth wave of a Delhi wide survey of a representative sample of Delhi’s voters.  The fifth and final wave of the poll was conducted on November 30th, 2013. Earlier the fourth wave was carried out between Nov 18th and 21st

Thefourth and fifth wave of the survey followed the same design as the first, second and fourth wave. A total of 1643 respondents were interviewed in the fifth wave and 3247 in the fourth wave. These respondents were selected scientifically from the latest electoral rolls of 85 polling booths spread across 17 Assembly Constituencies.  All Assembly Constituencies, Polling Booths and respondents were sampled using the Systematic Random Sampling Technique. Selective substitution was permitted under strict protocols.  All interviews were conducted face-to-face using a standard-structured questionnaire and a constituency specific dummy ballot was used for voting questions.

 

The survey shows a steady trend in the overall political mood of Delhi in2013.  If elections were held yesterday, this is how the major political parties would have fare:

 

Table 1:Seat – Vote Estimate based on Wave – V.

Estimated Votes (%)

Projected Seats

Congress

25.8

8 – 14

BJP

26.6

11 – 17

AAP

35.6

38 – 50

Others

12.0

0 – 2

Note:Vote shares after adjustments for ‘other smaller parties’.

 

Table 2: Trends – February to November 2013

 

Round 1 (Feb)

Round 2 (August)

Round 3 (September )

Round 4 (18th – 21 st November)

Round 5 (30th November)

 

no. of respondents 3310

no. of respondents 3372

no. of respondents 34425

no. of respondents 3247

no. of respondents 1643

Party

Raw
Vote Share

Adjusted
Vote Share

Raw
Vote Share

Adjusted
Vote Share

Raw
Vote Share

Adjusted
Vote Share

Raw
Vote Share

Adjusted
Vote Share

Raw
Vote Share

Adjusted
Vote Share

Congress

24.5

35.0

20.2

26.0

29.5

28.0

28.4

29.7

27.8

25.8

BJP

 

23.7

35.0

24.6

31.0

25.5

24.0

24.5

25.6

28.6

26.6

AAP

8.4

14.0

20.0

27.0

33.4

32.0

31.3

32.7

38.3

35.6

Others

 

7.0

16.0

7.2

16.0

4.1

16.0

11.4

12.0

4.3

12.0

Undecided

36.4

28.0

7.4

4.3

1.0

 

 

ArivindKejriwal is clearly ahead of other contenders in the Chief Ministerial race.  When given a choice between ArvindKejriwal, ShielaDikshit and Harshwardhan, 39 percent named Kejriwal, followed by 29 percent for ShielaDikshit and 26 percent for Harwardhan.AamAadami Party support cuts across all segments of society, but a little better among the young voters. Significantly, the AAP leads among Dalits and has equaled the Congress among Muslims.

 

Dhananjai Joshi

 

Director, Cicero Associates & Consultants

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