Today’s Chanakya Exit Poll jolts UDF with tight Kerala race projection amid majority forecasts

Thiruvananthapuram April 30 (IANS) With just days to go for the official results of the Kerala Assembly polls, a surprise projection released on Thursday by Today’s Chanakya has injected fresh uncertainty into the state’s electoral landscape, unsettling the United Democratic Front (UDF) camp even as most others predicted a comfortable victory for it.

While pollsters such as Axis My India, People’s Pulse, VoteVibe, Matrize and JVC have broadly projected the UDF led by the Congress to cross the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member Assembly, Today’s Chanakya has raised the possibility of a hung House.

According to Chanakya’s estimates, the UDF may secure 69 seats (+/-9), placing it in the 60–78 range, just on the cusp of a majority.

The Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by the Communist Party of India-Marxist, is projected at 64 seats (+/-9), or 55–73 seats, indicating a neck-and-neck contest.

The margin between the two fronts, the agency suggests, could be wafer-thin.

Crucially, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), spearheaded by the Bharatiya Janata Party, is expected to improve its tally to 3–11 seats, potentially emerging as a crucial force in a fractured verdict scenario.

The divergence in projections has become the talking point of the election’s final phase.

While most polls give the UDF between 72 and 85 seats, well above the majority threshold, Chanakya’s lower-end estimate has raised concerns within the opposition alliance about overconfidence and last-mile voter shifts.

The LDF, though trailing in most surveys, remains within striking distance in this projection, underscoring the competitiveness of the race.

Vote share estimates further reinforce the tightness. Chanakya projects the UDF at 40 per cent (+/-3 per cent), the LDF at 38 per cent (+/-3 per cent), and the NDA at 20 per cent (+/-3 per cent), suggesting that even small swings could decisively alter outcomes across closely fought constituencies.

With every seat now critical, the spotlight shifts to counting day.

Official results will be declared on May 4, and as always with exit polls, the final verdict may yet defy predictions.

–IANS

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