Inflation in Bangladesh may rise in winter on higher oil prices and farm costs: Report

Mumbai, Oct 31 (IANS) Bangladesh should prepare for a new bout of inflation in the coming winter as higher global oil prices and rising agricultural production costs could push up food prices, a new report has said.

The report from Bangladesh-based The Daily Star cited economists urging stronger social protection, better market management and a fair economic growth distribution to protect vulnerable households from rising living costs.

They warned that vulnerable households may sell more assets, including gold and jewellery, or borrow money to meet daily expenses despite their hardship left out of official poverty figures.

At a discussion organised by a civil society platform, AKM Enamul Haque, director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), said policymakers should not assume economic conditions would improve soon and should be prepared for further deterioration.

He said rising oil prices had increased the cost of fertilisers, pesticides and other farm inputs, almost doubling production costs raising concerns about food prices. Haque called for a review of the public food distribution system, particularly for rural households facing seasonal income uncertainty.

Citing official data, he said indebtedness touched 51 per cent in rural areas, compared with 32 per cent in metropolitan cities and 40 per cent in other urban areas.

“If our system is too focused on urban areas, we may fail to reach rural households facing greater income uncertainty and financial pressure,” the report cited him.

He also urged stronger market oversight and supply-chain reforms, saying a price commission would fail to solve the problem unless markets functioned properly.

“If growth does not reduce inequality and is not inclusive, it cannot ensure food security or deliver its benefits to ordinary people,” said Sayema Haque Bidisha, a professor of economics at the University of Dhaka.

She called for minimum-wage arrangements covering workers beyond the garment sector, particularly those employed in the informal economy.

Another recent report said Bangladesh’s economy is confronting three interconnected crises, namely slowing growth, a widening trade deficit and severe banking-sector weaknesses.

World Bank data showed that Bangladesh’s economic growth slowed to 3.4 per cent in fiscal year 2025-26 and is expected to remain flat in FY27, well below the government’s 6.5 per cent target.

—IANS

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