Cases crosses 1.34million, Deaths will cross 75, 000 today, in 209 Countries, Minimum expected reported deaths 83595, more than 5000 deaths per day, declining in Iran

On Apr 7, 2020

Dr KK Aggarwal

President CMAAO, HCFI and Past National President IMA

1st 100,000 in 67 days, 2nd in 11 days, 3rd in 4 days, 4th in 3-day, 5th in 2.5 Days, 6th in 2 days, 7th in 2 days, 8th in 1.5 days and 9th in 1.5 days, 1 million in 1.5 days, 1.1 M 1.5 days, 1.2 M in 1.5 days

First reported Case: 10th January

Situation Around the Globe

Likely minimum deaths (74647 + 47518 x 15 = 7128) = 83595

Total cases: 1,345,751

Deaths: 74,647

Recovered: 278,428

ACTIVE CASES: 992,676

Mild: 945,158 (95%)

Serious: 47,518 (5%

New cases on 6th April: 72850

New deaths on 6th April: 5220

Cases per million population (global) 173

Deaths per million population (global) 9.6

India: 4778 cases and 136 deaths as per World Meter (7 am 7th April)

Doubling Time 4 days

Strategies

1. Unless we get this globally under control, there is a very good chance that it will assume a seasonal nature

2. Since it will be unlikely to be completely eradicated from the planet, as we get into next season, we may see the beginning of a resurgence.

3. Time to analyse if those who got BCG vaccination in childhood got the infection or not, jamatis who got it how many were BCG vaccinated.

4. Will countries mandate their CSR funds for COVOD 19

5. ARDS (cytokine storm) require specific ventilator settings, prone ventilation and trained staff with standby ECHMO.

6. https://mobile.twitter.com/ChestImaging?s=08 site for posting COVID positive X rays, CT images

7. Reduction in air pollution levels and Ganges water pokllution

8. Reduction in overall deaths from other causes (low pollution, less stress, more hygiene, no traffic accident deaths). The effect is already seen in Delhi cremation numbers. There is also a trend of shifting towards CNG cremation. One of the cremation grounds on 25 and 26th showed 20% reduction in deaths (just an observation)

9. After Nizamuddin incidence the Indian government may impose National Health Emergency or pass National Ordinance like Kerala.

10. ZIKA crisis in Brazil was successful only because of deployment of Army.

11. Model Options for containment: Lock down for three weeks (India); Lock down for forty days; selective lockdown of states with rising cases (Wuhan) or cities with hot spots (Vietnam); Selective lock down for elderly and persons with comorbid conditions (Germany and Japan); Intensify testing amongst all or high risk group (S Korea); Deploy younger health care workers and women as front-line fighters (Italy two hospitals posted young doctors < 40 years, 60% women on duties with no mortality in healthcare workers); make available surgical masks at reception to be worn by all patients entering the hospital (Singapore).

12. Testing Models: Symptomatic cases (India, on 2nd April started testing asymptomatic contacts), S Korea (test test and test)

13. Use donated plasma of all cured patients and use them for serious patients

14. Keep all the healthcare workers on duty in hotels (like air lines staff) till so that they are not a risk to their family

15. Protect the lives of the healthcare workers in light of 61 doctors died in Italy & in Spain 14% of those infected are healthcare workers. In China, till the first week of March, 3,400 healthcare workers were infected while in Wuhan, 18 doctors and other healthcare workers succumbed to the disease. [TOI]

16. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal.

17. All health workers should wear surgical masks while at work to protect themselves and to protect others if they asymptomatic shedders.

18. General public should wear cloth mask when on the roads.

19. A team of Australian scientists at Monash University in Melbourne has shown a single dose of the Ivermectin drug was able to stop the SARS-CoV2 virus growing in cell culture. The Food and Drug Agency approves the drug as an anti-parasitic drug that is effective in fighting viruses such as HIV, influenza, and Zika. Their study was published in the journal Antiviral Research

20.

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	Total Tests	Tests/ 1M pop
World	1,345,751	+72,850	74,647	+5,220	278,428	992,676	47,518	173	9.6
USA	367,004	+30,331	10,871	+1,255	19,671	336,462	8,879	1,109	33	1,914,540	5,784
Spain	136,675	+5,029	13,341	+700	40,437	82,897	6,931	2,923	285	355,000	7,593
Italy	132,547	+3,599	16,523	+636	22,837	93,187	3,898	2,192	273	721,732	11,937
Germany	103,374	+3,251	1,810	+226	28,700	72,864	4,895	1,234	22	918,460	10,962
France	98,010	+5,171	8,911	+833	17,250	71,849	7,072	1,502	137	224,254	3,436
China	81,708	3,331	77,078	1,299	265	57	2
Iran	60,500	+2,274	3,739	+136	24,236	32,525	4,083	720	45	186,000	2,214
UK	51,608	+3,802	5,373	+439	135	46,100	1,559	760	79	252,958	3,726
Turkey	30,217	+3,148	649	+75	1,326	28,242	1,415	358	8	202,845	2,405
Switzerland	21,657	+557	765	+50	8,056	12,836	391	2,502	88	162,500	18,776
Belgium	20,814	+1,123	1,632	+185	3,986	15,196	1,257	1,796	141	70,000	6,040
Netherlands	18,803	+952	1,867	+101	250	16,686	1,409	1,097	109	86,589	5,053
Canada	16,667	+1,155	323	+43	3,616	12,728	426	442	9	330,901	8,767
Austria	12,297	+246	220	+16	3,463	8,614	250	1,365	24	111,296	12,357
Brazil	12,183	+929	564	+78	127	11,492	296	<span style="font-size:11.5pt;line-height:10