COVID-19: Cases crosses 1.2 million, Deaths will cross 75, 000, in 204 Countries, Minimum expected reported deaths 71050, over 5000 deaths per day

On Apr 5, 2020

Dr KK Aggarwal

President CMAAO, HCFI and Past National President IMA

1st 100,000 in 67 days, 2nd in 11 days, 3rd in 4 days, 4th in 3-day, 5th in 2.5 Days, 6th in 2 days, 7th in 2 days, 8th in 1.5 days and 9th in 1.5 days, 1 million in 1.5 days, 1.1 M 1.5 days, 1.2 M in 1.5 days

First reported Case: 10th January

Situation Around the Globe

Likely minimum deaths (64716 + 42290 x 15 = 6344 ) = 71050

Total cases: 1,201,933

Deaths: 64,716

Recovered: 246,634

ACTIVE CASES: 890,583

Mild: 848,293 (95%)

Serious: 42,290

New cases on 3rd April: 84800

New deaths on 3rd April: 5801

Cases per million population (global) 154

Deaths per million population (global) 8.3

India: 3588 cases and 99 deaths as per World Meter (7 am 4th April) Doubling Time 4 days

Strategies

1. Time to analyse if those who got BCG vaccination in childhood got the infection or not, jamatis who got it how many were BCG vaccinated.

2. Will countries mandate their CSR funds for COVOD 19

3. ARDS (cytokine storm) require specific ventilator settings, prone ventilation and trained staff with standby ECHMO.

4. https://mobile.twitter.com/ChestImaging?s=08 site for posting COVID positive X rays, CT images

5. Reduction in air pollution levels and Ganges water pokllution

6. Reduction in overall deaths from other causes (low pollution, less stress, more hygiene, no traffic accident deaths). The effect is already seen in Delhi cremation numbers. There is also a trend of shifting towards CNG cremation. One of the cremation grounds on 25 and 26th showed 20% reduction in deaths (just an observation)

7. After Nizamuddin incidence the Indian government may impose National Health Emergency or pass National Ordinance like Kerala.

8. ZIKA crisis in Brazil was successful only because of deployment of Army.

9. Model Options for containment: Lock down for three weeks (India); Lock down for forty days; selective lockdown of states with rising cases (Wuhan) or cities with hot spots (Vietnam); Selective lock down for elderly and persons with comorbid conditions (Germany and Japan); Intensify testing amongst all or high risk group (S Korea); Deploy younger health care workers and women as front-line fighters (Italy two hospitals posted young doctors < 40 years, 60% women on duties with no mortality in healthcare workers); make available surgical masks at reception to be worn by all patients entering the hospital (Singapore).

10. Testing Models: Symptomatic cases (India, on 2nd April started testing asymptomatic contacts), S Korea (test test and test)

11. Use donated plasma of all cured patients and use them for serious patients

12. Keep all the healthcare workers on duty in hotels (like air lines staff) till so that they are not a risk to their family

13. Protect the lives of the healthcare workers in light of 61 doctors died in Italy & in Spain 14% of those infected are healthcare workers. In China, till the first week of March, 3,400 healthcare workers were infected while in Wuhan, 18 doctors and other healthcare workers succumbed to the disease. [TOI]

14. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal.

15. All health workers should wear surgical masks while at work to protect themselves and to protect others if they asymptomatic shedders.

16. General public should wear cloth mask when on the roads.

17. A team of Australian scientists at Monash University in Melbourne has shown a single dose of the Ivermectin drug was able to stop the SARS-CoV2 virus growing in cell culture. The Food and Drug Agency approves the drug as an anti-parasitic drug that is effective in fighting viruses such as HIV, influenza, and Zika. Their study was published in the journal Antiviral Research

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	Total Tests	Tests/ 1M pop
World	1,201,443	+84,800	64,688	+5,801	246,258	890,497	42,324	154	8.3
USA	311,357	+34,196	8,452	+1,331	14,825	288,080	8,206	941	26	1,632,955	4,933
Spain	126,168	+6,969	11,947	+749	34,219	80,002	6,532	2,699	256	355,000	7,593
Italy	124,632	+4,805	15,362	+681	20,996	88,274	3,994	2,061	254	657,224	10,870
Germany	96,092	+4,933	1,444	+169	26,400	68,248	3,936	1,147	17	918,460	10,962
France	89,953	+7,788	7,560	+1,053	15,438	66,955	6,838	1,378	116	224,254	3,436
China	81,639	+19	3,326	+4	76,755	1,558	331	57	2
Iran	55,743	+2,560	3,452	+158	19,736	32,555	4,103	664	41	186,000	2,214
UK	41,903	+3,735	4,313	+708	135	37,455	163	617	64	183,190	2,698
Turkey	23,934	+3,013	501	+76	786	22,647	1,311	284	6	161,380	1,913
Switzerland	20,505	+899	666	+75	6,415	13,424	391	2,369	77	153,440	17,729
Belgium	18,431	+1,661	1,283	+140	3,247	13,901	1,245	1,590	111	70,000	6,040
Netherlands	16,627	+904	1,651	+164	250	14,726	1,360	970	96	75,415	4,401
Canada	13,912	+1,537	231	+23	2,595	11,086	120	369	6	317,972	8,425
Austria	11,781	+257	186	+18	2,507	9,088	245	1,308	21	104,134	11,562
Portugal	10,524	+638	266	+20	75	10,183	251	1,032	26	81,087	7,952
Brazil	10,360	+1,166	445	+82	127	9,788	296	49	2	54,824	258
S. Korea	10,156	+94	177	+3	6,325	3,654	55	198	3	455,032	8,875
Israel	7,851	+423	44	+4	427	7,380	115	907	5	90,394	10,443
Sweden	6,443	+312	373	+15	205	5,865	379	638	37	36,900	3,654
Norway	5,550	+180	62	+3	32	5,456	98	1,024	11	105,865	19,528
Australia	5,550	+96	30	+2	585	4,935	85	218	1	286,786	<p class="MsoNormal