COVID19: Cases crosses 1.1 million, Deaths will cross 75, 000
Dr KK Aggarwal
President CMAAO, HCFI and Past National President IMA
1st 100,000 in 67 days, 2nd in 11 days, 3rd in 4 days, 4th in 3-day, 5th in 2.5 Days, 6th in 2 days, 7th in 2 days, 8th in 1.5 days and 9th in 1.5 days, 1 million in 1.5 days, 1.1 M 1.5 days,
First reported Case: 10th January
Situation Around the Globe
Likely minimum deaths (59145+ 39391 x 15 = 5909) = 65054
Total cases: 1,098,025
Deaths: 59,145
Recovered: 228,589
ACTIVE CASES: 810,291
Mild: 770,900 (95%)
Serious: 39,391
New cases on 2nd April: 82989
New deaths on 2nd April: 5973
Cases per million population (global) 141
Deaths per million population (global) 71.3
India: 2567 ( 3108) cases and 72 ( 86) deaths as per World Meter (7 am 4th April, Covid Meter) Doubling Time 4 days
Maharashtra first 100 in 15 days, 200 in 6 days, 300 in 2 days
Tamil Nadu doubling time one day from 67 to 124
Strategies
1. Time to analyse if those who got BCG vaccination in childhood got the infection or not
2. Will countries mandate their CSR funds for COVOD 19
3. ARDS (cytokine storm) require specific ventilator settings, prone ventilation and trained staff with standby ECHMO.
4. https://mobile.twitter.com/ChestImaging?s=08 site for posting COVID positive X rays, CT images
5. Reduction in pollution levels, effect already seen in Delhi and Noida
6. Reduction in overall deaths from other causes (low pollution, less stress, more hygiene, no traffic accident deaths). The effect is already seen in Delhi cremation numbers. There is also a trend of shifting towards CNG cremation. One of the cremation grounds on 25 and 26th showed 20% reduction in deaths (just an observation)
7. After Nizamuddin incidence the Indian government may impose National Health Emergency or pass National Ordinance like Kerala.
8. ZIKA crisis in Brazil was successful only because of deployment of Army.
9. Model Options for containment: Lock down for three weeks (India); Lock down for forty days; selective lockdown of states with rising cases (Wuhan) or cities with hot spots (Vietnam); Selective lock down for elderly and persons with comorbid conditions (Germany and Japan); Intensify testing amongst all or high risk group (S Korea); Deploy younger health care workers and women as front-line fighters (Italy two hospitals posted young doctors < 40 years, 60% women on duties with no mortality in healthcare workers); make available surgical masks at reception to be worn by all patients entering the hospital (Singapore).
10. Testing Models: Symptomatic cases (India, on 2nd April started testing asymptomatic contacts), S Korea (test test and test)
11. Use donated plasma of all cured patients and use them for serious patients
12. Keep all the healthcare workers on duty in hotels (like air lines staff) till so that they are not a risk to their family
13. Protect the lives of the healthcare workers in light of 61 doctors died in Italy & in Spain 14% of those infected are healthcare workers. In China, till the first week of March, 3,400 healthcare workers were infected while in Wuhan, 18 doctors and other healthcare workers succumbed to the disease. [TOI]
14. A dozen doctors in five states of India have been infected mainly due to lack of PPE.
15. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal.
16. All healthcare workers should wear surgical masks while at work to protect themselves and to protect others if they asymptomatic shedders
17. General public should wear cloth mask when on the roads.
| Country, Other |
Total Cases |
New Cases |
Total Deaths |
New Deaths |
Total Recovered |
Active Cases |
Serious, Critical |
Tot Cases/ 1M pop |
Deaths/ 1M pop |
| World | 1,098,025 | +82,929 | 59,145 | +5,973 | 228,589 | 810,291 | 39,391 | 140.9 | 7.6 |
| USA | 277,161 | +32,284 | 7,392 | +1,321 | 12,283 | 257,486 | 5,787 | 837 | 22 |
| Italy | 119,827 | +4,585 | 14,681 | +766 | 19,758 | 85,388 | 4,068 | 1,982 | 243 |
| Spain | 119,199 | +7,134 | 11,198 | +850 | 30,513 | 77,488 | 6,416 | 2,549 | 240 |
| Germany | 91,159 | +6,365 | 1,275 | +168 | 24,575 | 65,309 | 3,936 | 1,088 | 15 |
| China | 81,639 | +19 | 3,326 | +4 | 76,755 | 1,558 | 331 | 57 | 2 |
| France | 64,338 | +5,233 | 6,507 | +1,120 | 14,008 | 43,823 | 6,662 | 986 | 100 |
| Iran | 53,183 | +2,715 | 3,294 | +134 | 17,935 | 31,954 | 4,035 | 633 | 39 |
| UK | 38,168 | +4,450 | 3,605 | +684 | 135 | 34,428 | 163 | 562 | 53 |
| Turkey | 20,921 | +2,786 | 425 | +69 | 484 | 20,012 | 1,251 | 248 | 5 |
| Switzerland | 19,606 | +779 | 591 | +55 | 4,846 | 14,169 | 348 | 2,265 | 68 |
| Belgium | 16,770 | +1,422 | 1,143 | +132 | 2,872 | 12,755 | 1,205 | 1,447 | 99 |
| Netherlands | 15,723 | +1,026 | 1,487 | +148 | 250 | 13,986 | 1,324 | 918 | 87 |
| Canada | 12,375 | +1,092 | 208 | +35 | 2,186 | 9,981 | 120 | 328 | 6 |
| Austria | 11,524 | +395 | 168 | +10 | 2,022 | 9,334 | 245 | 1,280 | 19 |
| S. Korea | 10,062 | +86 | 174 | +5 | 6,021 | 3,867 | 55 | 196 | 3 |
| Portugal | 9,886 | +852 | 246 | +37 | 68 | 9,572 | 245 | 970 | 24 |
| Brazil | 9,194 | +1,150 | 363 | +39 | 127 | 8,704 | 296 | 43 | 2 |
| Israel | 7,428 | +571 | 40 | +4 | 403 | 6,985 | 113 | 858 | 5 |
| Sweden | 6,131 | +563 | 358 | +50 | 205 | 5,568 | 469 | 607 | 35 |
| Australia | 5,454 | +140 | 28 | +3 | 585 | 4,841 | 85 | 214 | 1 |
| Norway | 5,370 | +223 | 59 | +9 | 32 | 5,279 | 96 | 991 | 11 |
| Ireland | 4,273 | +424 | 120 | +22 | 25 | 4,128 | 148 | 865 | 24 |
| Czechia | 4,190 | +332 | 53 | +9 | 72 | 4,065 | 77 | 391 | 5 |
| Russia | 4,149 | <td valign="top" style="border-width:1pt;border-style:solid;bo |
