“More recently, expectations that Omicron may turn out to be more of a flash flood than a wave have brightened near-term prospects.”

The RBI pointed out that aggregate demand conditions have stayed resilient. “The issuance of E-way bills – an indicator of freight movement – surged to 7.2 crore in December, the second highest in its history. This is indicative of the likelihood of robust collection of the goods and services tax (GST) in January 2022.

“With a strong pick-up in manufacturing and construction, highway toll collections soared by 16 per cent month-on-month in December. Power consumption rose by 4.5 per cent to 110.3 billion units in December.”

It said that increase in mobility in December 2021 increased fuel consumption, with the consumption of petrol surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, aviation turbine fuel (ATF) and diesel consumption also exhibited sequential improvement though ATF still remains below the pre-pandemic levels.

On the supply front, the bulletin said: “On the supply side, aggregate supply, as measured by gross value added (GVA) at basic prices, increased by 8.6 per cent in 2021-22, as against a contraction of 6.2 per cent a year ago.

“The acceleration in GVA growth was facilitated by robust growth in agriculture, coupled with recovery in industry and in several constituents of services, albeit, on a favourable base.”