New Delhi, 21st July 2023: An index designed to gauge economic cycle turns in that the United States business declined for the 15th consecutive month in June, pulled down by a deteriorating consumer outlook and rising unemployment claims, marking the longest stretch of declines since the run-up to the 2007-2009 recession.
The Conference Board reported on Thursday that its Leading Economic Index, which predicts future economic activity, fell 0.7% in June to 106.1, following a 0.6% drop in May. The reduction was slightly bigger than the 0.6% drop predicted by economists in a Reuters survey.
“Taken together, June’s data suggests that economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board.
The Conference Board has repeated its prediction that the US economy will be in recession from the current third quarter through the first quarter of 2024.
Zabinska-La Monica said, “Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further.”
According to the Conference Board, the LEI is contracting faster than expected, falling 4.2% in the previous six months compared to 3.8% between June and December 2022.
