World Latest Covid19 Update: 210 Countries, over 2.48 M cases, Deaths crosses 200,000
Dr KK Aggarwal(President CMAAO, HCFI and Past National President IMA)
210 Countries, over 2.48 M cases, Deaths crosses 200,000 with current trend with minimum expected deaths over 178938, 21.9 deaths per million population
April 9 US: 9,282 health care workers, 723 hospitalization and 27 deaths
India doubling time 7 days
1st 100,000 in 67 days, 2nd in 11 days, 3rd in 4 days, 4th in 3-day, 5th in 2.5 Days, 6th in 2 days, 7th in 2 days, and subsequent in 1.5 days
First reported Case: 10th January
Situation Around the Globe
Likely minimum deaths (170423 + 56765 x 15 = 8515) = 178938
Cases: 2,481,026 (73928 yesterday)
Deaths: 170,423 (5366 yesterday)
Recovered: 646,675
ACTIVE CASES: 1,663,928
Currently Infected Patients
Mild: 1,607,163 6765 )
Serious: 56,765 (3%)
CLOSED CASES
Outcome: 817,098
Recovered: 646,675 (79%)
Died: 170,423 (21%)
Cases per million population (global) 318
Deaths per million population (global) 21.9
From first symptom to Dyspnea (Shortness of breath) = 5.0 days
From first symptom to Hospital admission = 7.0 days
From first symptom to ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) = 8.0 days (when occurring)
Incubation period (time from exposure to the development of symptoms) 2-14 days.
No data: Time to test positive to the onset of first symptom
India
Confirmed 17615
Deaths: 559
| Country, Other |
Total Cases |
New Cases |
Total Deaths |
New Deaths |
Total Recovered |
Active Cases |
Serious, Critical |
Tot Cases/ 1M pop |
Deaths/ 1M pop |
Total Tests |
Tests/ 1M pop |
| India | 18,539 | +924 | 592 | +33 | 3,273 | 14,674 | 13 | 0.4 | 401,586 | 291 | |
| Total: | 2,480,503 | +73,928 | 170,397 | +5,366 | 646,328 | 1,663,778 | 56,763 | 318.2 | 21.9 |
India Cases on 21st 18539; Case on 12th 9205 cases
Doubling time: 8.5 days
Growth factor > 1
GF = every day’s new cases / new cases on the previous day. For example, a quantity growing by 7% every period (in this case daily) has a growth factor of 1.07. A growth factor above 1 indicates an increase, whereas one which remains between 0 and 1 it is a sign of decline, with the quantity eventually becoming zero, whereas a growth factor constantly above 1 could signal exponential growth.
Death Rate
Europe 9.38% {cases 1,113,096 deaths 104491]
Asia 3.06% [ 396,469 cases and 15132 deaths)
Oceania
1.01% [8164 cases and 83 deaths]
North America: 5.33% [ cases 851,396, 45433 deaths]
Africa: 4.81% [24,171 cases with 1164 deaths]
South America: 4.71 % [86,486 cases with 4079 deaths]
India 3.19% [18,539 cases with 592 deaths]
Pakistan: 1.98% [8892 cases and 176 deaths]
World 6.87 % [2,480,503 cases with 170397 deaths]
1. 30% of India cases are from Tablighi Jamaat
2. Extra pulmonary manifestations: Encephalitis, Guillain Barry Syndrome 96 cases), Diarrhoea, Loss of smell, loss of taste, AKI (5%, tremendously catabolic with hyperkalemia, hyperphosphatemia, and profound metabolic acidosis to a degree not seen in typical kidney failure patients); hepatopathy,conjunctivitis, Diabetes and hyperglycemia among people without prior diabetes, Thrombocytopenia (20.7%)
3. Australia and New Zealand relax restrictions: Both countries have managed to keep the coronavirus outbreak mostly contained. For eight straight days, Australia has recorded fewer than 50 new cases.
4. Singapore’s coronavirus caseload has more than doubled in the past few days, with more than 8,000 confirmed cases as of Monday, the highest in Southeast Asia. Most of the new infections are in the crowded dormitories where migrant laborers live. The spike has exposed the very different experiences of rich and poorer expatriates in a city-state where 40 percent of residents are foreign-born.
5. Hong Kong reported no new coronavirus cases on Monday, the first time since a second wave of infections hit the city in early March.
6. In Delhi all the 186 novel coronavirus cases found positive in the capital on Saturday were asymptomatic.
7. In New York City in a universal testing of pregnancy trial they found 13.7 % were COVID infection (87.9% were asymptomatic and 12.1% were pre symptomatic)
8. In India it is affecting younger people (< 50 years) with mild symptoms
9. A pandemic is National Health Emergency
10. All healthcare worker and on HCQS prophylaxis should fill the form https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/6KPW8CR
11. India doubling time is > 7days
12. Make health care establishments fully functional
13. Concentrate on polio, measles, rota virus, routine immunisation and TB notification. Isolate all MDR and TB positive cases till sputum negative
14. Consider every surface and asymptomatic person as virus carrier
15. COVID 19 may assume a seasonal nature.
16. BCG may be protective. ICMR has started a study. Cases in India 11 per million population against 299 global
17. Diagnose and treat early to reduce viral load and prevent cytokine storm AND e for prevalence test after days (antibodies test will take 7 days to detect)
18. Both ARDS and silent hypoxia requires specific non ventilatory and ventilatory prone settings with standby ECMO. tPA, heparin, ACE inhibitors, early treatment, plasma therapy, blood/ cord blood transfusion, timely air lift of critical patients may help.
19. Post @ https://mobile.twitter.com/ChestImaging?s=08: Post COVID positive X rays, CT images.
20. Collateral benefits: Reduction in air pollution, Clear Ganges, reduction in overall deaths (low pollution, less stress, more hygiene, no traffic accident deaths).
21. ZIKA Brazil Model: Army used for the crisis. Keep Army at standby.
22. Quarantine models
India: Early lock down for forty days
Wuhan: Selective sealing of epicentre
Vietnam: Sealing of a village with most cases
Bhilwara CLUSTER: Seal 2 km all around, fumigate each house, house to house survey for ALI and SARI, isolate infected cases, test all close contacts
Bird flu model: April 20, 2016, the Lebanonese Ministry of Agriculture found H5N1 in 2 poultry farms in the border of Lebanon with Syria. 20,000 domestic birds died. The ministry culled all (60K) domestic birds within a 3-km radius. All farms were disinfected, and organic remains were disposed safely.
Germany, Sweden and Japan model: Selective isolation of elderly and high-risk comorbid patients
S Korea: Intensify testing amongst all or high-risk group
Italy: Deploy younger health care workers and women as front-line fighters (2 hospitals posted young doctors < 40 years, 60% women on duties with no mortality in healthcare workers)
Singapore: Make available surgical masks at reception to be worn by all patients entering the hospital. Give N 95 masks to all health care providers and use AII rooms for all procedures on infected cases
Germany: Random testing for antibodies is key in Germany’s strategy. (New York Times)
23. Convalescent plasm therapy: start early to reduces viral load. One patient can give it to ten patients.
24. Delhi HCW model: Keep all the healthcare workers on duty in hotels
25. Significant exposure to Covid-19: face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is minimal.
26. Mask Policy: All health workers in health care setting should wear N 95/ surgical and general public should wear cloth mask when on the roads.
27. The cost of API used in hydroxychloroquine touched Rs 70,000 per kg, from Rs 6,500 per kg in February. The cost of API for azithromycin has doubled to Rs 16,000 a kg. China is a major supplier of APIs.
28. A six-day delay by China: On January 14, top Chinese officials sensed a pandemic. The head of China’s National Health Commission, Ma Xiaowei, in a confidential teleconference with provincial health officials, said: "The epidemic situation is still severe and complex, the most severe challenge since SARS in 2003, and is likely to develop into a major public health event." Yet in the six days that followed, Wuhan hosted a banquet attended by thousands and millions of Chinese migrated within the country for the Lunar New Year celebrations. On January 20, President Xi Jinping warned the public, saying the outbreak "must be taken seriously". The same day, a leading Chinese epidemiologist, Zhong Nanshan, announced for the first time that the virus was transmissible from person to person on national television. But by then, more than 3,000 people had been infected.
29. 12 days of silence added to the fuel: From Jan. 5 to Jan. 17, China’s CDC did not register any case of pneumonia-like disease from local officials. Yet during that time, hundreds of patients were appearing in hospitals not just in Wuhan but across the country. On January 2, local officials of the Chinese Communist Party punished eight doctors for "rumour mongering" for warning friends on social media about the emerging SARS-like threat. One of the doctors, Dr. Li Wenliang, later died on Feb. 7.
30. Two Chinese companies sold UK 2 M home test kits for $20 million on upfront payment on take it or leave it terms. The simple pregnancy test like option was a potential game changer but the tests did not work.
31. More doubt on coronavirus’s Wuhan origin: in a paper published earlier this month, geneticists said it may have started spreading as early as mid-September, and from elsewhere in China. (PNAS, Newsweek)
32. The coronavirus crisis has killed more than 7,000 people at nursing homes across the country, The New York Times has determined, and has even ravaged facilities with sterling reputations.
| Country, Other |
Total Cases |
New Cases |
Total Deaths |
New Deaths |
Total Recovered |
Active Cases |
Serious, Critical |
Tot Cases/ 1M pop |
Deaths/ 1M pop |
Total Tests |
Tests/ 1M pop |
| World | 2,480,503 | +73,928 | 170,397 | +5,366 | 646,328 | 1,663,778 | 56,763 | 318 | 21.9 | ||
| USA | 792,759 | +28,123 | 42,514 | +1,939 | 72,389 | 677,856 | 13,951 | 2,395 | 128 | 4,026,360 | 12,164 |
| Spain | 200,210 | +1,536 | 20,852 | +399 | 80,587 | 98,771 | 7,371 | 4,282 | 446 | 930,230 | <span style="font-size:11.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:"Arial",sans |

