Canada Sees Sharp Drop in Indian Students Amid Tighter Rules and Higher Costs

Just two years ago, Canada was the clear top choice for Indian families planning to send their children abroad to study. Today, education consultancies in Delhi are reporting a mass pivot toward Italy, Germany, and Australia. Visa restrictions, a sharp rise in the cost of living, and a shortage of jobs have turned Canada from an obvious plan into a complex equation with too many unknowns.

Numbers That Show the Shift

The scale of the change is hard to overstate. According to overseas education agencies, the number of applications for Canada fell by nearly 80% compared with 2023. A report by Canada’s Auditor General, presented to Parliament in May 2025, recorded a drop in the share of Indians among incoming international students from 51.6% in 2023 to 8.1% in September 2025. The refusal rate for study permits rose from 38% to 52% in a single year. The financial barrier has also become more tangible: the mandatory Guaranteed Investment Certificate (GIC) increased from C$10,000 to over C$20,000, and Ottawa introduced a cap of roughly 350,000 permits per year for bachelor’s and diploma programs.

Why Canada Has Become a Question Mark Rather Than a Plan

The reasons for the shift fall into a clear hierarchy:

• visa and immigration barriers, including higher refusal rates and stricter document checks;
• economic factors: a rapid rise in rents in major cities, fewer available job openings, and a doubling of the financial threshold for proof of funds;
• the 2023 diplomatic crisis, which undermined trust among Indian families in the country, even as relations are now gradually normalizing.

Each of these factors on its own would have been noticeable, but their simultaneous impact created a cumulative effect the market had not seen before.

How the Rules Changed: A Timeline of Ottawa’s Decisions

In early 2024, the government announced a two-year limit on international student intake for bachelor’s and diploma programs. That same year, financial requirements were tightened by doubling the GIC. By the end of 2024, the Student Direct Stream (SDS) fast-track program, which allowed faster visa processing if certain conditions were met, was scrapped. Notably, postgraduate programs were formally affected to a much lesser extent.

Money and Daily Life: The Cost of the Canadian Dream

For India’s middle-class families, where overseas education is built on meticulous financial planning, the doubling of the GIC has become a serious obstacle. As Sushil Sukhvani of Edwise Overseas Education notes, raising the required amount is now extremely difficult for many families, and with a high likelihood of refusal, putting money into the process feels too risky. Rising rents in Toronto, Vancouver, and other major cities only heighten the sense of a financial trap.

Visas in Doubt and the Fast-Track Channel Shuts Down

The Auditor General’s report highlighted a paradox: the SDS approval rate for Indian applicants rose from 61% in 2022 to 98% in 2024, even as officials simultaneously flagged risks—forged documents, failure to attend classes, and a growing number of asylum claims. The program was deemed vulnerable to “bad-faith applicants seeking entry to Canada” and was wound down. Tighter screening after the closure of SDS has made the process less predictable for all categories of applicants.

Studying as a Path to Immigration No Longer Works Automatically

The old trajectory looked simple: two to three years of study in a vocational program, then employment and an application for permanent residency (PR) in about five years. The Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP), valid for up to three years, still exists, but amid competition for vacancies and rising costs it has become merely permission to stay, not a guarantee of settling long-term.

Work Isn’t for Everyone, and a Graduate Went Back Home

The rapid growth of private colleges during the post-pandemic international-student boom produced a wave of institutions with limited academic value, operating primarily as commercial enterprises. The labor market did not keep pace with the flow of graduates. Shobhit Anand, who runs an education consultancy in Delhi, recalls a former client: a 24-year-old graduate of a Canadian college could not find stable work, scraped by on odd jobs, and ultimately was unable to cover basic living costs. He returned to India and is now looking for work at home.

Two Groups of Applicants, and the Blow Lands Differently

McGill University President Deep Saini divides Indian students into two camps. The first is academically motivated candidates who choose strong institutions for the quality of education. The second is those for whom studying at a small college was primarily an affordable route to PR. Ottawa’s restrictions were aimed precisely at the “immigration” track, so top-tier universities were minimally affected. Saini called the decline in intake at McGill after 2023 “collateral damage” from visa tightening and diplomatic tensions, adding that the number of Indian students is already returning to previous levels.

The Family Calculation: Even Those Who Want to Leave Are Hesitating

Within Indian families, the question has shifted from “How do we leave?” to “Is it worth it at all?” Consultants emphasize that parents are increasingly choosing alternative destinations or putting plans on hold. However, Canada has not disappeared from lists entirely. Seventeen-year-old Tanishk Khurana initially decided against applying after a consultant discussed caps and refusals with him, but ultimately chose to apply for a bachelor’s degree in clinical psychology. His motivation is his sister and cousins living in Canada, a familiar environment, and expectations of better career prospects. He understands the risks, but family ties tipped the balance.

A Thaw Despite Lingering Uncertainty

There are signs of improvement. Prime Minister Mark Carney visited India accompanied by representatives of leading Canadian universities, and new education partnerships and scholarship programs were discussed. Even so, for most Indian families the “study–work–settle” formula has lost its status as a reliable pathway and is increasingly seen as a risky bet with an unclear outcome.

The Diaspora’s Digital Footprint: An Unexpected Indicator

The scale of the Indian diaspora’s presence in Canada can be judged not only by visa statistics. Indirect indicators can be just as telling. Indian YouTube channels consistently draw a sizable share of views specifically from Canadian provinces, and cricket broadcasts on streaming services show year-on-year growth in Canadian audiences. 

A similar dynamic is also visible in the iGaming industry: according to several industry outlets, including a site focused on no deposit bonuses at canada casinos, the share of users of Indian origin is growing noticeably. 

The reason is that major international iGaming brands popular in Canada are well known to audiences in South Asia, and relocating doesn’t change their habits. All these digital traces confirm that even as the student flow shrinks, the diaspora’s cultural and consumer influence continues to grow, shaping demand that extends well beyond the education sector.