Cases crosses 1.4million, Deaths will cross 100,000, in 209 Countries, Minimum expected reported deaths 89258, more than 5000 deaths per day, 10 deaths per million population.

On Apr 8, 2020

Dr KK Aggarwal

President CMAAO, HCFI and Past National President IMA

1st 100,000 in 67 days, 2nd in 11 days, 3rd in 4 days, 4th in 3-day, 5th in 2.5 Days, 6th in 2 days, 7th in 2 days, 8th in 1.5 days and 9th in 1.5 days, 1 million in 1.5 days, 1.1 M 1.5 days, 1.2 M in 1.5 days

First reported Case: 10th January

Situation Around the Globe

Likely minimum deaths (82074 + 47891 x 15 = 7184) = 89258

Total cases: 1,431,691

Deaths: 82,074

Recovered: 302,150

ACTIVE CASES: 1,047,467

Mild: 999,576 (95%)

Serious: 47,891 (5%)

New cases on 6th April: 84915

New deaths on 6th April: 7380

Cases per million population (global) 184

Deaths per million population (global) 10.4

India: 5351 cases and 160 deaths as per World Meter (7 am 7th April)

Doubling Time 4 days

Strategies

1. Unless we get this globally under control, there is a very good chance that it will assume a seasonal nature

2. Since it will be unlikely to be completely eradicated from the planet, as we get into next season, we may see the beginning of a resurgence.

3. Time to analyse if those who got BCG vaccination in childhood got the infection or not, jamatis who got it how many were BCG vaccinated.

4. Will countries mandate their CSR funds for COVOD 19

5. ARDS (cytokine storm) require specific ventilator settings, prone ventilation and trained staff with standby ECHMO.

6. https://mobile.twitter.com/ChestImaging?s=08 site for posting COVID positive X rays, CT images

7. Reduction in air pollution levels and Ganges water pokllution

8. Reduction in overall deaths from other causes (low pollution, less stress, more hygiene, no traffic accident deaths). The effect is already seen in Delhi cremation numbers. There is also a trend of shifting towards CNG cremation. One of the cremation grounds on 25 and 26th showed 20% reduction in deaths (just an observation)

9. After Nizamuddin incidence the Indian government may impose National Health Emergency or pass National Ordinance like Kerala.

10. ZIKA crisis in Brazil was successful only because of deployment of Army.

11. Model Options for containment: Lock down for three weeks (India); Lock down for forty days; selective lockdown of states with rising cases (Wuhan) or cities with hot spots (Vietnam); Selective lock down for elderly and persons with comorbid conditions (Germany and Japan); Intensify testing amongst all or high risk group (S Korea); Deploy younger health care workers and women as front-line fighters (Italy two hospitals posted young doctors < 40 years, 60% women on duties with no mortality in healthcare workers); make available surgical masks at reception to be worn by all patients entering the hospital (Singapore).

12. Testing Models: Symptomatic cases (India, on 2nd April started testing asymptomatic contacts), S Korea (test test and test)

13. Use donated plasma of all cured patients and use them for serious patients

14. Keep all the healthcare workers on duty in hotels (like air lines staff) till so that they are not a risk to their family

15. Protect the lives of the healthcare workers in light of 61 doctors died in Italy & in Spain 14% of those infected are healthcare workers. In China, till the first week of March, 3,400 healthcare workers were infected while in Wuhan, 18 doctors and other healthcare workers succumbed to the disease. [TOI]

16. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal.

17. All health workers should wear surgical masks while at work to protect themselves and to protect others if they asymptomatic shedders.

18. General public should wear cloth mask when on the roads.

19. A team of Australian scientists at Monash University in Melbourne has shown a single dose of the Ivermectin drug was able to stop the SARS-CoV2 virus growing in cell culture. The Food and Drug Agency approves the drug as an anti-parasitic drug that is effective in fighting viruses such as HIV, influenza, and Zika. Their study was published in the journal Antiviral Research

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	Total Tests	Tests/ 1M pop
World	1,430,919	+84,915	82,034	+7,380	301,905	1,046,980	47,913	184	10.5
USA	400,335	+33,331	12,841	+1,970	21,674	365,820	9,169	1,209	39	2,075,739	6,271
Spain	141,942	+5,267	14,045	+704	43,208	84,689	7,069	3,036	300	355,000	7,593
Italy	135,586	+3,039	17,127	+604	24,392	94,067	3,792	2,243	283	755,445	12,495
France	109,069	+11,059	10,328	+1,417	19,337	79,404	7,131	1,671	158	224,254	3,436
Germany	107,663	+4,288	2,016	+206	36,081	69,566	4,895	1,285	24	918,460	10,962
China	81,740	+32	3,331	77,167	1,242	211	57	2
Iran	62,589	+2,089	3,872	+133	27,039	31,678	3,987	745	46	211,136	2,514
UK	55,242	+3,634	6,159	+786	135	48,948	1,559	814	91	266,694	3,929
Turkey	34,109	+3,892	725	+76	1,582	31,802	1,474	404	9	228,868	2,714
Switzerland	22,253	+596	821	+56	8,704	12,728	391	2,571	95	167,429	19,346
Belgium	22,194	+1,380	2,035	+403	4,157	16,002	1,260	1,915	176	80,512	6,947
Netherlands	19,580	+777	2,101	+234	250	17,229	1,424	1,143	123	86,589	5,053
Canada	17,897	+1,230	381	+58	4,028	13,488	426	474	10	346,507	9,181
Brazil	14,034	+1,851	686	+122	127	13,221	296	66	3	<td valign="top" style="border-width:1