Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘NISARGA’ over Eastcentral Arabian Sea: Cyclone Warning for north Maharashtra & adjoining south Gujarat coasts: Red message

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According to the National Weather Forecasting Centre/Regional Specialised Meteorology Centre/Cyclone Warning Division of the India Meteorological Department:

The Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘NISARGA’ over Eastcentral Arabian Sea moved northeastwards with a speed of about 13 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today the 03rd June, 2020 over Eastcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 17.6°N and longitude 72.3°E, about 130 km south-southwest of Alibagh (Maharashtra), 170 km south-southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra) and 400 km south-southwest of Surat (Gujarat).

 

It is very likely to move north-northeastwards and cross north Maharashtra coast close to south of Alibagh (Raigad District, Maharashtra) during the afternoon of today the 03rd June as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with maximum sustained wind speed of 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph.

 

The system is now being continuously tracked by the Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs) at Mumbai (Maharashtra) and Goa.

 

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

 

Date/Time(IST) Position

(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)

Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph) Category of cyclonic disturbance
03.06.20/0830 17.6/72.3 100-110 gusting to 120 Severe Cyclonic Storm
03.06.20/1130 18.1/72.7 100-110 gusting to 120 Severe Cyclonic Storm
03.06.20/1730 18.7/73.3 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
03.06.20/2330 19.4/73.9 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
04.06.20/0530 20.2/74.6 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression

 

 

 

Warnings:

 

(i)         Rainfall: 

  • Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls ( ≥ 20 cm in 24 hours) at isolated places very likely over north Konkan (Mumbai, Palghar, Thane, Raigad districts) and north Madhya Maharashtra during next 24 hours.
  •  Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over south Konkan ( Ratnagiri & Sindhudurg districts) & Goa and south Gujarat region (Valsad, Navsari, Dang, Daman, Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Surat districts) during next 24 hours.
  •  Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places over west Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha during next 24 hours.

 

 

(ii)        Wind warning

  • Gale wind, speed reaching 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph, is prevailing over Eastcentral Arabian Sea. From the Noon of today, the 3rd June, it will become Gale wind, speed reaching 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph over eastcentral Arabian Sea along & off north Maharashtra coast (Raigad, Mumbai and adjoining Thane), 85-95 kmph gusting to 105 kmph along & off Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg, Palghar and remaining areas of Thane. Gale wind, speed reaching 60-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph, likely along & off Valsad, Navsari districts of Gujarat, Daman, Dadra & Nagar Haveli and along & off northeast Arabian Sea and 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph along & off Surat & Bharuch districts of south Gujarat from today the 03rd June noon.
  • Squally wind, speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph is likely to prevail over northeast Arabian Sea along & off remaining districts of south Gujarat coast on 03rd June.
  • Squally wind, speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph is likely prevail over eastcentral Arabian Sea along and off Karnataka-Goa coasts during next 12 hours.

 

(iii)       Sea condition

The Sea condition will be High to Very High over eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Maharashtra & Goa coasts till today, the 3rd June evening. The Sea condition is very likely to be very rough to High over northeast Arabian Sea along & off south Gujarat coast till today, the 3rd June evening

(iv) Storm Surge Warning:

Storm surge of about 1-2 meters height above astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of Mumbai, Thane and Raigad districts and 0.5-1 meter height above the astronomical tide likely to inundate low lying areas of Ratnagiri district during the time of landfall.

 

(v)       Fishermen Warning

Fishermen are advised not to venture into Eastcentral and Northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Karnataka-Goa-Maharashtra-south Gujarat coasts during next 24 hours.

 

 

(vi)     Damage Expected:

  • Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly.
  • Damage to power and communication lines.
  • Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
  • Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Damage to banana and papaya trees. Large dead limbs blown from trees.
  • Major damage to coastal crops.
  • Damage to embankments/ salt pans.

(vii) Fishermen Warning & Action Suggested:

  • Total suspension of fishing operations.
  • Mobilise evacuation from low lying areas.
  • Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic.
  • People in affected areas to remain indoors.
  • Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.


 Post Landfall Outlook:

After the landfall the Severe Cyclonic Storm is very likely to maintain its Cyclonic Storm intensity for about 06 hours, while moving north-northeastwards across north Madhya Maharashtra. Under its influence Gale wind reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph very likely to prevail over Pune, Ahmadnagar and 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph adjoining Beed, Nashik & Aurangabad districts of Maharashtra. Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places are also very likely over these districts on 3rd June, 2020.

 

 

Damage Expected and Action suggested for interior districts of Maharashtra (Pune,   Ahmadnagar, Nashik, Aurangabad and adjoining Beed).

 

(i) Minor damage to power and communication lines. (ii) Damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. (iii) Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of small trees. (iv) Damage to banana and papaya trees. (v) People in affected areas to remain indoors.

 

(Please see details and UPDATED graphics in this link here)

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